My Retirement
I recently came across an article in Fortune magazine describing a new marketplace where subscribers can speculate on current events. This isn't a new idea, but this is probably the most complete implementation of the idea to date.
Many who follow the stock market feel that what insight the average consumer can attain about a certain investment is normally already built into the price and unlikely to give him any advantage at all. This is especially true when companies like Fidelity can change an entire market with one move. And further, do I really care if 3M can maintain its market share on legal pads?
Intrade offers more than just an interesting new way to gamble. It's actually a powerful investment tool for hedging against everyday events. The example given by Fortune is for an insurance company to hold a contract that a hurricane makes land mitigating their exposure if it wreaks havoc on South Florida.
John Poindexter, then Director of the DARPA Information Awareness Office, proposed a similar market that DARPA could monitor to predict terrorism and political unrest. Unfortunately, his idea was met with such hyperbolic disdain in the Senate that he eventually resigned. I think this type of market is a better fit for the private sector, but if Intrade becomes popular enough, I wouldn't blame intelligence analysts for taking a peek at it now and then.
Either way, I plan to simply destroy my political peers on Intrade.
UPDATE, 8/8/05: Support h50.net and make $50 by using this referral code: p9262382728e
Many who follow the stock market feel that what insight the average consumer can attain about a certain investment is normally already built into the price and unlikely to give him any advantage at all. This is especially true when companies like Fidelity can change an entire market with one move. And further, do I really care if 3M can maintain its market share on legal pads?
Intrade offers more than just an interesting new way to gamble. It's actually a powerful investment tool for hedging against everyday events. The example given by Fortune is for an insurance company to hold a contract that a hurricane makes land mitigating their exposure if it wreaks havoc on South Florida.
John Poindexter, then Director of the DARPA Information Awareness Office, proposed a similar market that DARPA could monitor to predict terrorism and political unrest. Unfortunately, his idea was met with such hyperbolic disdain in the Senate that he eventually resigned. I think this type of market is a better fit for the private sector, but if Intrade becomes popular enough, I wouldn't blame intelligence analysts for taking a peek at it now and then.
Either way, I plan to simply destroy my political peers on Intrade.
UPDATE, 8/8/05: Support h50.net and make $50 by using this referral code: p9262382728e
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